Volume 41, Issue 1

January 2025
Special issues: Sustainability and Environmental Challenges in the Caspian Sea


Editorial »

A perspective on sustainability and environmental challenges in the Caspian Sea

Stefanos Xenarios, Serik Orazgaliyev, Ali Torabi Haghigh & Bjorn Kløve


Research Articles


Determining factors for changes in the ice regime of the Caspian Sea

Zhanar Naurozbayevaa,b, Aziza Baubekovac, Anastasia Kvashad, Vladimir Lobanove, Bjorn Kløvec and Ali Torabi Haghighic

aCaspian Sea Hydrometeorological Research Department, Republican State-Owned Enterprise ‘Kazhydromet’, Almaty, Kazakhstan; bDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Almaty, Almaty, Kazakhstan; cWater, Energy and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Technology, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; dDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary; eDepartment of Meteorology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St Petersburg, Russia

Contact: Aziza Baubekova | Email: aziza.baubekova@oulu.fi

Abstract

This article provides an analysis of the factors driving long-term change in the characteristics of the ice regime of the Northern Caspian Sea using satellite and in situ observation. It assesses the climatic shifts, comparing the linear trend and step change models. We link the stepwise shift in temperatures in the 1980s with the changes in the forms of atmospheric circulation. The decrease in the sum of negative temperatures impacts the length and intensity of winters with the 18–27-day reduction in the freeze period, leading to a shorter period of ice cover and reduced ice thickness by 20–28 cm.

Pages: 9–30

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2231099


Climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation over the Caspian Sea

S. Mahya Hoseini, Mohsen Soltanpour and Mohammad R. Zolfaghari

Civil Engineering Department, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Contact: S. Mahya Hoseini | Email: sm.hoseini@mail.kntu.ac.ir

Abstract

The projected changes in precipitation and air temperature over the Caspian Sea (CS) are studied using 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) and downscaling/bias-correction techniques are applied to reduce the uncertainties and correct the biases in CMIP6 outputs. Future projections indicate a warmer climate (0.4–3°C) over the CS in the 21st century, with precipitation changes up to 2.3% decrease or 20% increase based on scenarios. These changes pose significant environmental challenges that require mitigation and adoption strategies for sustain-able development.

Pages: 31–56

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2313050


Modelling extreme precipitation projections under the effects of climate change: case study of the Caspian Sea

Sogol Moradiana,b, Salem Gharbiac, Ali Torabi Haghighid and Indiana A. Olberta,b,e,f

aCollege of Science and Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland; bEHIRG EcoHydroInformatics Research Group, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland; cDepartment of Environmental Science, Atlantic Technological University, Sligo, Ireland; dWater Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; eMaREI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland; fRyan Institute for Environmental, Marine and Energy Research, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland

Contact: Sogol Moradian | Email: sogol.moradian@universityofgalway.ie

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter climate extremes. This paper evaluates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, where the changes are noticeable due to its geographical location and remoteness from the ocean. Using bias-corrected data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and extreme value analysis, this study shows increased precipitation from 18.48 mm/month in 1980–2014 to 19.50–19.82 mm/month in2015–2100, depending on the climate scenario. Additionally,extreme events in the future are projected to increase over the sea due to climatic changes, depicting the emergence of droughts/floods that could occur more frequently in the region.

Pages: 57–77

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2400505 (Open Access)


Satellite-based phenology analysis of the Hyrcanian forest inthe Alborz mountains and Caspian Sea shores, Iran

Sahand Ghadimia, Amir Hossein Ahraria, Epari Ritesh Patroa, Mahdi Akbaria, Kiomars Sefidib, Bjorn Klövea and Ali Torabi Haghighia

aWater, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; bForest Science Department, Agriculture, and Natural Resources Faculty, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabili, Iran

Contact: Sahand Ghadimi | Email: sahand.ghadimi@oulu.fi

Abstract

The Caspian Sea and the Hyrcanian forest rely on each other to maintain balanced hydrological and climatological conditions and preserve the local wildlife and natural resources. Climate variation impacts this balance and the ecological status of the forest. In this study, thermal and phenological seasonality in three Hyrcanian protected areas is evaluated over a period of 33 years (1987–2019). The results suggest extensions of 3–18 days per decade ingrowing seasons. This could be mitigated by applying policies such as the expansion of protected areas, stringent endangered species conservation, updated silviculture practices, social awareness and cross-sectoral management.

Pages: 78–101

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2293862


The spatiotemporal variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Caspian Sea (an ecoregion-based approach)

Forough Fendereski

School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

Contact: Forough Fendereski | Email: forough.fendereski@gmail.com

Abstract

Environmental perturbations caused dramatic changes in the Caspian Sea’s phytoplankton phenology, with severe consequences for ecosystem health and functioning. To better understand these changes, phenological properties of main phytoplankton blooms were quantified using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (1998–2015). Results showed significant ecoregion-scale differences in blooms’timing, duration, magnitude and interannual variability (p < 0.05), especially in north-eastern and southern ecoregions, suggesting their high sensitivity to recent environmental changes. Given the ecological and socio-economic importance of north-eastern and southern ecoregions and the influence of temperature in bloom timing changes, this study suggests ecosystem managers and policymakers focus on future impacts of climate change on these ecoregions.

Pages: 102–128

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2279961


Navigating risk in Caspian sturgeon conservation: mapping manager risk perceptions with species conservation measures

Callie Bermana,b

aRuckelshaus Institute, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA; bCambridge Central Asia Forum, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Contact: Callie Berman | Email: callie.berman@gmail.com

Abstract

The six species of sturgeon endemic to the Caspian are among the most critically endangered species in the world. Conservation of these species therefore entails balancing harvests and investments in rehabilitating wild populations. Using a semi-structured interview format, this study interviewed sturgeon aquaculture and hatchery managers in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to explore how risks to Caspian sturgeon are understood and negotiated by employing Soviet-era and modern-day aquaculture techniques. The results highlight how manager risk perceptions for species conservation are increasingly tied to market risks rather than restocking risks. Recommendations for integrating commercial techniques with scientific research programmes are offered.

Pages: 129–151

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2436600


Assessing socio-economic and natural vulnerability to oils pills: a case study of Azerbaijan’s Caspian shoreline

Jessica Neafiea, Maira Albakassovab and Emil Bayramovc,d

aPolitical Science and International Relations, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan; bDepartment of Economics and Business, Central European University, Vienna, Austria; cSchool of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan; dInstitute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI), Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan

Contact: Jessica Neafie | Email: jessica.neafie@nu.edu.kz

Abstract

This study addresses the environmental and socio-economic impacts of oil spills on the Caspian shoreline. Proactive ecological management must include diverse static and dynamic information to measure pollution’s environmental and human impacts. This study develops a hybrid environmental sensitivity index (ESI) map for Azerbaijan’s coast, integrating biological, socio-economic, and physical sensitivity data with historical risk measures. The ESI assists local and national managers to plan and improve response readiness to oil spills. The approach could also be applied across all Caspian littoral states, where increasing oil activities heighten risks in vulnerable areas.

Pages: 152–175

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2434595  (Open Access)


Towards multi-modal oil spill detection and coverage in the Caspian Sea: a comprehensive approach

Alpamys Pentayeva, Amirhossein Ahrarib, Aziza Baubekovab, Maksat Faizuldanova, Nurzhan Nurtayeva, Alireza Sharifib, Ali Torabi Haghighib, Stefanos Xenariosc,d and Siamac Fazlia

aDepartment of Computer Science, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan; bWater, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; cGraduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan; dCSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

Contact: Siamac Fazli | Email: siamac.fazli@nu.edu.kz

Abstract

This study presents a novel multi-modal methodology for detecting oil spills in the Caspian Sea and combines remote sensing, deep learning and natural language processing (NLP) of media content. We developed an accurate and comprehensive oil spill database covering incidents from 2002 to 2023 by integrating satellite synthetic aperture radar imagery with deep learning segmentation models. A key innovation of our approach is cross-referencing satellite-detected spills with media reports, enhancing detection accuracy while revealing significant underreporting of spills in media outlets. Our approach demonstrates the potential of merging technological innovations with media analytics to improve environmental monitoring effectiveness and inform policy-making for sustainable marine ecosystems.

Pages: 176–203

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2438203


Assessing the tourism efficiency in the Caspian Sea region

Ruslan Nurmatova, Simeon Nanovskyb, Xose Luis Fernandez Lopeza, Pedro Pablo Coto Millana and David Paz Saavedraa

aDepartment of Economics, University of Cantabria, Santander, Spain; bGSPP, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan

Contact: Ruslan Nurmatov | Email: rusnurmatuni@gmail.com

Abstract

This research studies the operational effectiveness of the tourism industry in the Caspian regions of Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan during the 2003–2022 period, with a particular emphasis on the impact of the recent crises (COVID-19, Ukrainian war). To this end, the paper uses the data envelopment analysis meta-frontier model,the Simar and Wilson regression and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting technique. The findings indicate significant disparities in tourism regional performance, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan particularly affected by the pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Forecasts indicate potential growth in the tourism industry of the Republic of Kalmykia, Russia, contingent on specific conditions.

Pages: 204–221

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2435990


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